700mhz Winners and Losers

So its all said and done. The auction of the century is finished, all $19.5B of it. So of the big names what were the runs, hits and errors?

• Google: Error. Yes they played the game for ‘open access’ but did they get it? If Verizon is going to play the same game on the 700mhz block as they are doing with their ‘Open Wireless’ gambit of device per device certification then Google lost. This error will ultimately come back to bite them when Verizon starts throttling adsense content in favor of their own. Count on it.
• AT&T: Hits. Like I suspected they filled in their presence in areas where the Aloha Networks buy was not. This has to go down as the wisest use of capital of any of the players. AT&T now has a near national presence for 30% off the cover price that Verizon paid for the national ‘C’ block.
• Verizon: Runs. Yep, the big winner. What can you say? They showed up at the table with a big wad of chips and just wore down the other players in the game. Didn’t even bluff, just kept on bidding. The only question remaining? They have a strike scheduled in August, will their backer still be there if the strike is still running in January?

2010 will have some interesting twists. My gut is saying that AT&T might be the first out of the gate. They want to nip XOhm in the bud for share. If the VZ strike winds up badly it could delay them for at least a year. We shall see.