We may actually see real wireless competition next year

Competitive pressure may be ready to break the wireless cartel’s hold on mobile broadband service by next year. Price / performance pressure should mount when T Mobile 3G and Xohm WiMax services come to market. While 3G is not broadband by a modern rich media measure, it does offer a real improvement over what is available to far too many Americans that are not served by fixed line broadband today. If Xohm performs as advertised, 3G may only be able to compete on price. The bodes well for the consumer who has been at the mercy of the cartel for far too long.

Thus by early 2009, the U.S. will have four national mobile networks:

• AT&T Mobility (formerly Cingular) using W-CDMA with HSDPA and eventually HSUPA
• T-Mobile USA deploying W-CDMA with HSDPA and then HSUPA
• Verizon using CDMA 2000 EVDO Rev A and later Rev B
• Sprint using CDMA 2000 EVDO Rev A and later Rev B (and partnered with four major cable companies)

In addition, WiMAX should be available in all major markets with the balance of a national footprint built out during 2009 and 2010; i.e., Sprint XOHM (pronounced zoam) usingWiMAX ( News - Alert) at 2.5 GHz in partnership with Clearwire

Four competitors is a magic number. One operator is a monopoly. Two or three operators typically form a stable oligopoly. There’s competition and evolution, but it’s controlled — no one goes bankrupt, no one takes over. However, markets with four or more viable competitors go wild, to the benefit of consumers. We’ve seen this effect in the evolution of mobile voice services in many countries around the world. Markets with four or more viable competitors experience hyper competition. (TMCnet)