Pulp is Dead, Its Just Not Buried

In a very comprehensive article Extra, extra, read all about it - or, sadly, not @ Comment, John Ibbitson covers the woes of the current pulp media –

That’s about to change. Across the United States, newspaper revenues are declining, along with circulation. As the American economy totters on the edge of recession, those declines are becoming precipitous and more pronounced than elsewhere. The Newspaper Association of America reports that classified newspaper advertising shrank by 16.5 per cent in 2007.

Circulation declines are also accelerating: Nationwide, newspaper circulation as of March 31 was down 3.6 per cent from the same time the year before; the year before that, it was down only 2.1 per cent. The Standard & Poor’s Publishing & Printing Index is declining at three times the rate of decline of the S&P 1500.

The Sunday edition of The New York Times is arguably the best newspaper in the world. Its circulation has declined almost 10 per cent in the past year alone, although part of the reason was management’s decision to cut back on discounted papers.

We have covered that before of course no new news there. But what will survive/replace the pulp media?

Small town Editions

Think about it a minute. Little papers in many semirural communites have sufficient readership, small press budget and the ‘press room’ staff such that it is is probably the editor and his wife. There is nobody to let go. They contract out the pulp publishing most likely so they don’t have a large 4 color press debt service. These type of operations, by hiring a web kid with knowledge of Django go live online tomorrow with little cost. Fact their bottom line would improve. They would need to transition their customers and readership to the online presence. But it should be an easy job to do.

The internet could very easily be their friend.

News Services

Folks like Reuters and AP have already staked out a high hill on the Internet. They represent an good chunk of the feeds online for the likes of Fox, CNBC, CBS and other online web presences. Most likely their position will improve as the the number of pulp editions dwindle. Their one shortcoming will be revenue. AP pulled a boner recently attempting to charge bloggers by the word. That will pass but the fact is much of the news wires depend on pulp revenue contracts. That will be something to keep an eye on.

Metro Editions

Sounds contradictory, were saying that the pulp dailies are going away yet we are saying they will survive. Well no, the pulp is dead. But a few enterprising metro dailies are actually making the transition to online and making money at it. But their numbers will be slim indeed.

No, what I am suggesting is the metro TV stations will in many cases expand operations. Keep in mind that many metro areas are served by cross owned paper and TV entities. The top 3 TV stations in the top 100 metro markets have already bolstered their on air viewing with online supplementals and repeats of online stories. Much of the traffic and weather reporting for any depth is online.

Some of the pulp press room reportage who have experience in working the web will transition to their TV sisters. That talent will be utilized to expand the online-onair experience beyond anything we now know.

There is one dark rider in this scenario — the national networks. Local TV affiliates quite honestly are a pain in the networks rump. Some MBA is going to do the numbers and tell someone like RedStone — “Start your own multichannel IPTV. The costs are lower, revenue consistent.” That event would put a stake thru the local TV broadcasters heart. Watch that space folks it is going to be a battle royale.

Non Affiliated Providers.

Here its folks like Pajamas Media and Brietbart TV. Small online operations that can bob and weave and fill in the niches of information content not provided by the traditional news sources. Mostly these originated as consolidated blogger based efforts.

There is however nothing saying that a defunct group of newsroom types could not do the same. The barrier to entry is not great. A server, broadband connection, web developer and reporters using laptops working out of their homes could work. They would however have to get their head on straight. Working for revenue, rather than slogging with a weekly paycheck is a different animal. Another words, you have to write what the reader wants. Many cannot get beyond their own political agenda, but many will and be successful at it.

My odd suspicion though is that the new breed of reporter will not be coming out of the J Schools but industry. We have seen this before. Remember the whole Dan Rather episode that led to his downfall? What spiked that story was a fella, expert in computer type fonts and another expert in typewriters of that particular era. Another words, gurus in disciplines related to a topic. Carl Sagans who are adroit on their specialized topic and love to write about it. The educated portion of the public has seen through the J school pap and have retreated to journals and high value content sources like WSJ.

Add it all up. By the time 2015 comes around the world of public discourse will be online. The public square will be on air and online. J schools will become places like Juliard. Specialized and of minor value for the price paid.

Anybody want a paper??

Linky.