… but the jury is still out. A new group with a new website and mission is about to hit the wireless arena. The name of the group - Focus Driven. Their website is Focusdriven.org. Their mission, to raise awareness of the distracted driver –

Each year, thousands of families suffer the loss of loved ones needlessly at the hands of drivers distracted by their cell phones. Whether texting, using hands-free or handheld phones, these drivers not only put their lives on the line, but they risk killing others on the road.

FocusDriven provides victims of cell phone distracted drivers, and their friends and families, with an outlet for sharing their stories. We also provide those interested in this issue with opportunities to get involved.

FocusDriven can help you petition your state legislation; educate your friends, families and coworkers about the hazards of distracted driving; or share your story with state representatives to help support legislation for safer roadways.

FocusDriven supporters and advocates know, and many have experienced, the very real consequences of drivers distracted by their cell phones. We ask you to make the pledge to not drive distracted, share what you learn on our site with those you know and get involved to help make our nation’s roads safer.

Are the aims admirable? Yes. But it can be like anything else — unless moderation and common sense is applied then the spiral downward is a swift and sure one. Two examples to my point. MADD — mothers against drunk driving. Early on they had a very positive affect on drunk driving. But slowly the mission itself changed from one looking for results (which was the basis for their early success.), to one of success at all costs. Even when the results can be marginal at best and the overall community results unfavorable.

The second I can provide is bradycampaign.org. They too started out with a laudable goal to reduce gun violence. (The violence is the issue, not the gun, its just the instrument. But that’s a different story.) They have slowly morphed not into a gun violence advocate but a gun banning advocate. The lever of that transformation being the funding by various anti gun sub-groups. What I would envision is that Focusdriven.org would become over funded by a Telco PAC and then slowly twisted to a meek shell of its former mission. Don’t let that happen to you.

I wish them God speed. This is an issue that needs a societal response. There are times in life that do not require you to answer the phone. Driving happens to be one of them.

Linky.

That is what a 3 judge panel of the first District Court of Appeals just did in the case of Comast vs FCC. The Panel offered the ruling as memorandum, not binding, but telegraphing the Courts observations and if affirmed by the full bench sets the FCC on its ear. –

Federal appeals court gave notice Friday it likely would reject the Federal Communications Commission’s authority to sanction Comcast for throttling peer-to-peer applications.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit suggested as much during oral arguments with the FCC and Comcast. The Philadelphia-based cable concern is appealing the agency’s 2008 decision ordering it to stop hampering the peer-to-peer service BitTorrent as a traffic-management practice.

The order was in response to complaints Comcast was sending fake signals to users of BitTorrent, a bandwidth-heavy protocol often used to pirate copyright content.

“You have yet to identify a specific statute,” Judge Raymond Randolph told an FCC lawyer regarding the legal authority to ding Comcast.

To be sure, Friday’s reaction to the appellate court hearing made it increasingly clear the Obama administration’s FCC has been preparing for a defeat concerning net neutrality (.pdf), one of the largest issues surrounding internet freedom.

The upshot of this memo? —

* Net Neutrality as it has been proposed since Chairman Martin’s tenure may not survive in its current form if it survives at all.

* That the FCC may not even have the authority to regulate in this area as no controlling regulatory clause has been found by the court.

* That the 30% rule fostered by the FCC on the cable industry is willful and capricious. The panel summarily vacated that baseline without standing in current rule making by the FCC itself.

* Has political implications beyond the scope of this blog.

In many ways we are right back to 2004 in regards to carriers regard to traffic management, FCC’s role in this issue and the very nature of Net Neutrality.

Linky.
Full Finding here.

Yes Dear Reader a little TCO analysis can save you money. We have been saying for years that the shell game of free phone, payback is a b!@#$ thru the contract is a bear. It also hurts your wallet. –

He’s considering buying a data-only plan from T-Mobile and relying primarily on SkypeOut purchases, with a backup of free Gizmo5 calls through Google Voice, although new Gizmo5 sign-ups are currently suspended. That means little to no mobile calling (unless you used the free Guava app). Then again, Ben sees some significant savings by the end of what would be a two-year contract, and considers himself a “near-total” dependent on Google services. Could you imagine making the data-only jump?

Just go over to the lifehacker article and see for yourself. Keep in mind that the author is considering only going with a data only plan, 2yr contact. There are other considerations one can also employ. For instance, does your spouse have a phone with a carrier who does a Friend and Family deal? Why not punch the Google voice into the loop? Then the calls to her are free. And if perchance one has a small VoIP server then a VoIP app on the Nexus might avoid all the Gizmodo fiddling as well.

While we are on the subject. The Nexus Launch. A captured live blog feed is here with pics. Initial take — very iPhonish. But that seems to be where the jive is at the moment. The wise move being made? You can buy the phone separate and go with any vendor you wish. That’s a damn smart move, especially for the consumer.

I just hope the carriers are prepared for the bandwidth assault. This phone screams — Songbird App. But your data store staying on the home server and streamed to the Nexus as an audio terminal. Oh and anybody out there developing a multiparty audio remix app for the Nexus. It would sell.

We have projected for 2 years that it was time for unbundling the phone. We would have expected it to happen before the smartphones took hold. But I guess it takes the extra functionality of the smartphone to force the issue on the carriers. Hope I am right but wrong.

Nexus one analysis.

That is pulling the plug on POTS. You know that little jingly thing your mother and grandmother still use at lifeline rates? Yes its still out there but dwindling by the day. So what happens? –

In response to a Notice of Inquiry released by the FCC to explore how to transition to a purely IP-based communications network, AT&T has declared that it’s time to cut the cord. AT&T told the FCC that the death of landlines is a matter of when , not if, and asked that a firm deadline be set for pulling the plug.

AT&T tells the FCC that supporting traditional POTS landlines is impeding investment in broadband, VoIP, and wireless services.AT&T said in its response to the FCC that “with each passing day, more and more communications services migrate to broadband and IP-based services, leaving the public switched telephone network (”PSTN”) and plain-old telephone service (”POTS”) as relics of a by-gone era.”

It also stated “It makes no sense to require service providers to operate and maintain two distinct networks when technology and consumer preferences have made one of them increasingly obsolete.”

Is AT&T right? Yes. The fact is Central Office based systems have long lead times and nearly as long tax treatment. Most of the majors were using 19/20yr MACRS or ACRS depreciation on the capital investment as that was agreed to by both the industry and the IRS as appropriate, circa 1950’s. Little has changed on that front ever since. But that poses a problem for say Version who just put a new CO remote in 5 years ago. (Rare as that is.) So how would that install be treated? Under the current rules an accelerated recapture would take place for junking the equipment. That’s a major hit when you consider that even today CO investments are in the billions. So the Telcos would push for tax relief if devaluation ever happened.

My gut says not so fast. Even though what AT&T says is true I have the tingly feeling in the back of my head that it won’t work out that way. AT&T would take the revised recapture relief to the bank, not do any more R&D/advanced services/VOIP/network upgrades, then cry poor mouth all the way into the CEO’s pocket. I am not against AT&T, its just how these guys have operated for years. I have been in the belly of this beast to know better.

There of course is another fly in the ointment to a devaluation of CO networks. I call it the other 1200. That is approximately how many phone companies there are in this country. Most are small operators, functioning as COOPs in rural territory that none of the majors even want to touch. At a minimum there would have to be some sort of relief offered to these companies. At a minimum most would require a DSLAM to get their customers on to VOIP. Most likely SBA enhanced funding would have to be offered at 0% interest to these companies. To date I have not heard of any plans to do so.

Devaluing the POTS network has to happen. We need to realize that as soon as possible. We also need to make sure that in the switch serious profit taking does not occur. Compensation where needed, support where required, but in the end it should be a net-net wash.

Linky.

Well you better hang on to your wallet! AT&T is preparing to readjust its pricing and policies. Oh and it does not apply to just iPhone, but any smartphone data enabled device —

IPhone users who jam the airwaves by watching video on their devices will be put on tighter leashes, an AT&T Inc. executive said Wednesday.

The carrier has had trouble keeping up with wireless data usage, leading to dropped connections and long waits for users trying to run programs on their devices. AT&T is upgrading its network to cope, but its head of consumer services, Ralph de la Vega, told investors at a UBS conference in New York that it will also give high-bandwidth users incentives to “reduce or modify their usage.”

Well this sounds like the knee jerk reaction of a bunch of suits who did not listen to the network engineers. If you sell a device capable of doing full signal video on a 2″ screen, well damn don’t blame the customer wanting to use it. Especially if you and your partners feature such capabilities in your advertisements.

Now in a capitalist system, price adjusting is ‘the’ method for moderating demand. It will work for bandwidth too. So no faults there. But where I would draw the line is — if flows to the shareholders or the executive suite totally then shame. A significant portion of the bounty ought to go to upgrading the network to increase capacity. That is what the engineer in me says.

No data on changes, prices or when this all happens. But do keep this in mind there dear reader. When it happens you can then opt out without an ETF charge if you wish.

Linky.

Or should I say the channel selector? You still might want to keep the cable for data transport — to get TV. –

So say you skip the Boxee Box and go with the Zino. One of the frustrations of internet TV is finding what you want, when you want it. This show is only on Hulu, that show is only on the network’s portal, and you’re on the web…what do you care which network produced what show? Can’t someone else keep track of that?

Well another launch yesterday was Clicker, a programming guide for internet TV. What’s nice about Clicker is that it only offers full episodes of content, so you won’t get dozens of hits that lead to 15 second clips. Clicker catalogs content from both free and paid sources, such as Netflix Instant Streaming and Amazon Video-on-Demand, but it marks paid content clearly so you can skip over it if you wish. You can set up Playlists, and Clicker also offers some social features, such as Trends and connecting your Clicker account to your Facebook account.

With each passing month it seems like cutting the cable cord becomes a more viable alternative, but yesterday in particular seemed to be a Big Day for internet TV (most of these launches were probably due to the NewTeeVee event that took place in San Francisco, CA). So are you ready to ditch cable? Or have you already? Please share your thoughts in the comments!

That is from IT World. Not exactly a CES oriented publication.

But the question is, is next year, THE year more users cut out the channel side of the cable connection? It could be if things remain stable as in near free. Or that Hulu does go to a paid service that’s like $20/year and includes premium offerings at that price. Sadly for the TWC and Comcast’s of the world, whether that happens or not is out of their hands.

The deep question is could Comcast survive as a data only transport provider?

Well the Net Neutrality rules have been codified by the FCC. All that is left is the wrangling about peripheral details. As a recap the prime components are —

The rules codify four old principles and introduce two new ones. Broadband providers must not block users from sending legal content on the net. They must let users run the applications and services they like and connect whatever devices they care to. And providers must not harm competition among ISPs or online services. The new principles require that broadband providers not discriminate against content services (i.e. block Skype because it competes with an ISPs voice service) and that they disclose to users and the feds how they manage their networks.

The rules would also explicitly extend beyond so-called wireline providers such as DSL and cable and apply to wireless internet services, such as 3G, satellite and WiMax. Providers would have leeway to shape or throttle traffic for network management purposes or to help police or “homeland security.”

The full rendering is here.

Couple of observations/effects now that this have been issued –

• Figure that the Telcos will now move to push congress for fiscal relief. The most likely move being a tax recapture modification for a period of years so they can accelerate the depreciation of the PSTN netowrks. 18 year depreciation rules need not apply anymore in telecom.
• Is ‘carrier of last resort’ now a dead duck? The new rules are not clear. But you can bet the Telcos will wish it so.
• This could be liberating for the Telcos as well, were they to play their cards right. Sure the PSTN will shrink. Were I Telco I would foster it. Partner with a Skype or other VoIP or their own captive and get the last of the user base on VoIP. Gut the CO of the old switch gear. Work with folks like Akami and turn the free space into network edge data centers. Lower costs, new services, lower cost per user. What’s not to like?
• Just because you can attach it does not mean the provider can’t shut you off. The new rules have ‘network manageabiltiy’ aspects attached. That folks includes bandwidth throttled or outright port closure.
• End of walled garden video channels? When the consumer can now get any device they want (within reason), the restrictions on say HBO having to be a channel line up partner with Comcast or TWC no longer exist. An example would be the Roku folks lining up HBO, FBN, NFL and other content as either free or pay ala-carte. Roku just does the cross billing to/for the consumer.

  Oddly the Comcasts of the world don’t need to be left out of this game. They could switch over what they currently carve out of their baseband to broadband and play the same game with the providers they already have.

• The handset race will heat up. With proven chipsets to support network access without concerns for interoperability the universe of devices and device types are going to skyrocket. Some old main stays like Motorola and Nokia might find themselves outclassed. The rate of change may become so fast that brand manufacturing may become a lost art.

In many ways the edges are going to be a new game. A great deal more diversity in product selection is on the horizon.

Linky.

… In the billing system, or not as the case maybe. Consider YouTube. If they put up a ‘XX billion’ served like McDonalds, the number would 75 with a B. That is a ton of video to stream. The bill must be huge right? Not so fast –

I think Google’s transit costs are close to zero,” said Craig Labovitz, the chief scientist for Arbor Networks and a longtime internet researcher. Arbor Networks, which sells network monitoring equipment used by about 70 percent of the net’s ISPs, likely knows more about the net’s ebbs and flows than anyone outside of the National Security Agency.

Sound impossible? –

YouTube has been mum on its actual costs, for competitive reasons, but did say in blog post in July that it has homegrown infrastructure and that traditional pricing models don’t apply.

There’s been a lot of speculation lately about how much it costs to run YouTube…. The truth is that all our infrastructure is built from scratch, which means models that use standard industry pricing are too high when it comes to bandwidth and similar costs. We are at a point where growth is definitely good for our bottom line, not bad.

In fact, YouTube’s low or nonexistent bandwidth bill points to a very important shift in the structure of the internet, which is rapidly becoming much more complicated.

Couple of facts make this near zero billing possible –

Care for your own.

In this particular regard you maintain your own equipment and internals. No different from any other enterprise. But like anything else scale is to the big guys advantage in some ways. With service automation number of servers becomes immaterial. Fact as a provider one has to achieve a certain size to justify something like BigFix, InSight or Tivoli.

Dark Fiber.

In the heady days of the mid to late 90’s nearly anybody with a slit trencher was farming out as a fiber deployment contractor. People were burying fiber with intentions of filling in up with all those office buildings going up. Most of it private rated dark fiber, not controlled by State or Federal rate rules. (Hence the term.)

Well that little effort didn’t pan out and so that fiber sits there only partially used. So along comes somebody like Google who needs transport they can either lease a chunk or if pricing is really good they might even buy certain holdings along certain routes. They are buying the route probably for a lot less than it cost to bury that fiber originally.

Net Cross Billing.

The deals by the major ISP’s are for net billing. If ISP A transports $10k worth of bits to ISP B. The ISP B. transport $11k worth of bits to ISP A the total billing that goes into settlement is the net cost a $1k. Most of the agreements also have trigger points so that cutting checks may not occur between parties till say a $50k threshold has been reached.

That helps Google on the budget. Google might burn up a $100k/month bill in transport to/from NYC to a Barcelona carrier. However the Barcelona carrier is looking for a route to Chicago. Google just happens to have such a route. So the two do a trade. Over the long term an entity like Google looks for these trade opportunities to reduce transport expenses.

Edge Networking Providers.

In the same vein the Net Cross Billing above works with the edge storage providers (eg Akami). The point of a edge provider is that they store that video on a system close to the end consumer. No need to transport that video from San Mateo to Tampa when its on a server in Tampa.

A Google or Yahoo would trade free transport with the edge provider for consideration to storage on the edge providers servers. Rates determined in the trade before hand.

So it is quite possible that in all the trading, handoffs and give and take that Google and YouTube could in some months see cash flows in from all the deals. Its a form of arbitrage that would make Corporal Klinger proud.

Pretty neat trick for Google/YouTube that represents 10% of all the traffic on the Internet.

Read the whole thing.

Linky.

In a continuing saga the fortunes of a couple of media titans continue to face hard times –

Conde –

The whole golf section is being revamped to get costs in line with revenue.

A Conde insider tells us that the layoffs came down this morning with little notice, claiming at least ten sales staffers at Golf World and at least one more at Golf Digest. The company “basically gutted [Golf World] and are merging the sales and marketing team with Golf Digest,” our tipster says.

It has been widely reported that nearly every surviving title at Condé Nast has been tasked with cutting 25% of their overall budgets. Condé Nast Editors-in-Chief at each title have been given the leeway to make cuts as they see fit, on their own schedule. The timing of these cuts has been closely guarded until now, and it remains unclear when cuts will come for each title. We will have more as the story develops.

CNN –

Once the unassailable leader in video news content. CNN now is at the bottom of the barrel in the cable news race, finishing dead last no matter how you slice the demographic.

• For the 7th consecutive weekday, CNN finished fourth on cable news in the prime time A25-54 demographic. It was the 77th time CNN finished 4th in that category this year. FNC was way out in front, followed by HLN just edging MSNBC by 1,000 viewers.

• Fox News’ total viewer average during prime time of 2,735,000 beat the other three cable news networks combined. Bill O’Reilly, who had the top show, had more than 1,000,000 in the demo

What’s happening? Well part is that the current recession this go round is impacting everyone. Unlike the last recession that hit IT hard. Or the one previous, that hit manufacturing. This particular downturn is hitting financial markets hard, but is not discriminating. Main street is feeling the effects. Couple that with small business sitting on the sidelines waiting for the regulatory environment to clear and the result is the perfect stom of inaction.

Sources.

This blog has been saying that voice channels on mobile is a anachronism. With the largest chunk of CPE now being smart that supports both a voice and data channel, the reality is the voice channel is passe. Well it looks like AT&T saw the handwriting –

Bowing to openness pressure from the FCC, AT&T renounced on Tuesday its opposition to internet telephone calls that use the iPhone’s 3G data connection.

In short, Skype on the iPhone is now OK by AT&T, the company said in letters to Apple and the FCC.

AT&T’s change of heart comes just after the FCC controversially announced that it was planning to extend internet openness rules to mobile networks. The wireless carriers are fighting back, arguing that wireless networks are not robust enough to operate without intense network management.

AT&T made no mention of the FCC in its announcement, crediting the change instead to a routine examination of its policies.

Now the result we applaud. Though we are left with a bad after taste considering that AT&T was dragged there kicking and screaming. But that is not a panacea either. Consider that in certain markets like NYC the 3G bandwidth is overburdened and drops are a given with the average iPhone user. So having a Skype call dropped could be annoying. Especially since 1/3 of iPhone data calls are dropped daily.

We are 2 steps forward, one step back. We now have some open light on open access. But we are hindered by the lack of bandwidth coupled with a reduced revenue of the providers to fund the upgrades for more bandwidth.

Linky.