Many have predicted the demise of Microsoft several times over the decades. The last big assessment being during Netscape’s glory years of the early 90’s and MS’s being caught flat footed by the Internet. But Bill pulled it out. But now? –

Even disregarding Microsoft’s bubble valuation when Mr. Ballmer took over in 2000, the stock has been the proverbial dead money for a decade … At bottom, this is a corporate governance problem. Manifestly, the solution is not to let management keep stepping up to the plate with shareholder money and promising home runs that never materialize…

What the company should … do now is sharply lift its regular dividend and then promise to keep lifting it, so management will have to strain and push to reinvest in its core business while still meeting its dividend commitment to shareholders. Mr. Ballmer or whoever succeeds him needs to be placed under relentless daily pressure to distinguish between necessary spending on the business and pursuit of me-too products that don’t serve shareholder interests.

And…

One big bet Microsoft should make is on open source, the tool of the underdog, a label that is coming to fit the Redmond giant.

Yes, Microsoft is increasingly dabbling in open source, but the company needs to get more than its feet wet. It needs to dive into open source head first.

Open source would pave the way for Microsoft to be more relevant on the web, as Mitch Kapor has argued. If Microsoft wants to compete with Google - and it must - then it’s going to have to significantly sharpen its web arsenal.

Forget loose distribution agreements for Drupal and better interoperability with PHP. Microsoft should consider acquiring Acquia and thereby bringing Drupal (and Acquia) founder Dries Buytaert into the fold. It should be looking for ways to aggressively woo the Linux, Apache, MySQL and Perl/PHP/Python crowd to Windows plus AMP and, frankly, to embrace LAMP developers for everything but Windows.

But let’s not stop there. Microsoft also needs to go deep on Linux. Yes, this is anathema to the Microsoft faithful. But I’m not talking about porting its applications to run on Linux, nor am I suggesting that Microsoft replace Windows with Linux as its desktop and server operating system. That would be madness.

Source

In the former observation, this maybe true under Ballmer. Ballmer is less of a risk taker than Gates ever was. The Internet adaption being a case in point. Bill bet the farm with little realization if the switch would pay off. It did.

But this time around its a little different as the latter quote points out. This time in order to make a switch, Microsoft will be the underdog in any move to intelligent consumer devices. The high ground right now is held by Apple of all people. To get there Microsoft will have to leave Windows in all its flavors behind. That poses a huge undertaking and I doubt Ballmer has the insight to pull it off.

As to a switch to Linux? Heh. We suggested that two years ago. From a technical standpoint it makes sense. Tie in with all the IP work that has been done on the kernel and concentrate your uniqueness in coming up with a X11 based desktop that is for all the world a Microsoft product. The savings would be huge.

But there is a problem. In going there MS would most likely have to cut costs. I mean, anybody with any IT experience will tell their TAM that MSLinux is not worth the current going price if all it is a desktop layer. I can free from 20 other distros. So MS would have to figure out how to survive on 50% of its current income stream while porting all their apps to the platform.

Question is will they, can they?

Yes Dear Reader a little TCO analysis can save you money. We have been saying for years that the shell game of free phone, payback is a b!@#$ thru the contract is a bear. It also hurts your wallet. –

He’s considering buying a data-only plan from T-Mobile and relying primarily on SkypeOut purchases, with a backup of free Gizmo5 calls through Google Voice, although new Gizmo5 sign-ups are currently suspended. That means little to no mobile calling (unless you used the free Guava app). Then again, Ben sees some significant savings by the end of what would be a two-year contract, and considers himself a “near-total” dependent on Google services. Could you imagine making the data-only jump?

Just go over to the lifehacker article and see for yourself. Keep in mind that the author is considering only going with a data only plan, 2yr contact. There are other considerations one can also employ. For instance, does your spouse have a phone with a carrier who does a Friend and Family deal? Why not punch the Google voice into the loop? Then the calls to her are free. And if perchance one has a small VoIP server then a VoIP app on the Nexus might avoid all the Gizmodo fiddling as well.

While we are on the subject. The Nexus Launch. A captured live blog feed is here with pics. Initial take — very iPhonish. But that seems to be where the jive is at the moment. The wise move being made? You can buy the phone separate and go with any vendor you wish. That’s a damn smart move, especially for the consumer.

I just hope the carriers are prepared for the bandwidth assault. This phone screams — Songbird App. But your data store staying on the home server and streamed to the Nexus as an audio terminal. Oh and anybody out there developing a multiparty audio remix app for the Nexus. It would sell.

We have projected for 2 years that it was time for unbundling the phone. We would have expected it to happen before the smartphones took hold. But I guess it takes the extra functionality of the smartphone to force the issue on the carriers. Hope I am right but wrong.

Nexus one analysis.

In the last two weeks there has been a lot of buzz on the RSS and Twitter feeds about the new Android Scripting Environment. If its a lot of volume, and this is, its usually one of two things — either this is a ‘Big Thing’ or its from Google. Well it is from Google. But it could also be a ‘Big Thing’ –

The Android Scripting Environment (ASE) brings scripting languages to Android by allowing you to edit and execute scripts and interactive interpreters directly on the Android device. These scripts have access to many of the APIs available to full-fledged Android applications, but with a greatly simplified interface that makes it easy to:

• Handle intents
• Start activities
• Make phone calls
• Send text messages
• Scan bar codes
• Poll location and sensor data
• Use text-to-speech (TTS)
• And more

Scripts can be run interactively in a terminal, started as a long running service, or started via Locale. Python, Lua and BeanShell are currently supported, and we’re planning to add Ruby and JavaScript support, as well.

Here’s the deal. If you wanted to do development on Android you set up a box to do the development on. Wrote your apps, did the integration, cloned it then put the result to your target platform. Not impossible stuff but involved and required more assets to do the job. With ASE you are liberated from that.

For an application developer that means they can write a python app in ASE. So long as they keep in mind the limitations of each of the intended target platforms (not all platforms are required to maintain the same suite of APIs) then their code can run on all of them! So the flash app you saw on the coke machine could be downloaded and be running on your ASE enabled HTC handheld or netbook of the future. That is the ‘Big Thing’ about ASE.

But it also brings the world of Legacy Python, LUA and BeanShell to the Android world. Were I Apple, this announcement (June 8 ) would make me extremely nervous. This is a platform environment with no lock-in. We know how that battle usually ends up don’t we?

Read the announcement here.

Code named Rosie, this variant of the Android platform is being developed to run on all of the HTC based products as a common baseline. What is also interesting is the fluid look of the widgets.

Android is live and kicking.

Linky.

Man it is getting better all the time! We had suggested about 7 months ago that the killer netbook would be both a compute and comm device rolled into one. What better way to achieve that than to roll Android into the mother, add the 3G chips and have at it! –

Asus is believed to be planning to run Google’s Android on its notebooks. This shows the reach of Google Android and how it can affect Microsoft operating system in the future.

Details are dang sketchy at this point. But if true this lays the groundwork for quite a machine. It also poses a threat to Microsoft. If Android can spread the breath of smart phone - PDA/MID - netbook then Microsoft’s small device strategy is tatters. As a development house why spend time and manpower having to know three different OS platform choices when I could interoprate on all three using nearly the same tool set. Worse yet, offer the same software product to the user across all those platforms for one price.

Linky.

HTC did a joint announcement with Vodafone at MWC in Spain on the pending G2 handset. Unlike G1 it will be sans a keyboard but Android based. –

« Blue Earth: Samsung’s Solar Phone Made from Water Bottles | Main | Crisis Bustin’ Booth Babes and Tommy Lee Jones at MWC »
HTC, Vodafone Show World’s Second Googlephone
By Charlie Sorrel EmailFebruary 17, 2009 | 11:15:08 AMCategories: Googlephone

Htc_android1

BARCELONA — The only Googlephone to appear at the Mobile World Congress couldn’t even be bothered to turn up in person. HTC and Vodafone made a joint announcement Tuesday of their forthcoming Android-based Magic, formerly known as the G2, but all they provided were tantalizing specs and a few images.

The handset is notable for a few reasons. First, it looks a lot nicer than the G1 from T-Mobile. Second, the Magic will be almost completely exclusive to Vodafone (the Magic will be on Vodafone in the UK, Spain, Germany and France; and non-exclusively on Vodafone in Italy). And third, it’s the first Android phone without a keyboard.

The Magic will be touchscreen-only. There is still a little navi-nipple like the G1, but the hard QWERTY keyboard on the T-Mobile G1 is gone, leaving only a 3.2-inch, 320×240-pixel screen. The phone also has a 3.2 MP camera, Wi-Fi and GPS.

Like the G1, it will support a wide range of Google applications, including Gmail, Google Maps, Google Talk and YouTube videos.

The Magic will also support video recording and playback.

At the phone’s launch, Vodafone’s Patrick Chomet called it the “the thinnest, nicest Android-powered device on the market.” This is a somewhat empty claim, seeing as there is only one other Android handset out there. Still, if Vodafone doesn’t pump the tariffs here in Spain like Telefónica did with the iPhone, I might just be buying it. If it ever turns up.

No particulars as to when then might show up on the American market.

Linky.

Little known by the general public, the ‘what’ most consumers get to choose from, is set by what happens in the interconference standards meetings and consortium trade groups. For example the Symbian Foundation vs Open Handset Alliance. –

The Symbian Foundation is limbering up to face the Open Handset Alliance next week, announcing a raft of new members to take on the Android threat, while LiMo and Access Linux lurk nearby looking for scraps.

Realising that the battle of operating systems is all about applications, Symbian has announced a load of new members including MySpace, Bank of America, and Omron Software - though most of the new members have something to gain for their $1,500 membership fee and there’s a remarkable degree of infidelity with companies betting each way.

Qualcomm, for example, is firmly in both camps. They don’t care if devices run Symbian or Android as long as it’s not desktop Windows, so they can sell their ARM-based Snapdragon processor into devices including laptots*. Omron Software backs both camps on the basis that membership isn’t expensive and provides a route to influence.

These industry trade groups are as critical as the individual players in them. The big stick is economy of scale is at stake. No single MFR today would want to pony up the R&D for an effort like Symbian OS. Much better a shared platform that they only bolt on UI and other components to.

The critical issue in this coming battle is for the software providers. Most are small firms with shallow pockets. So they will have to pick one of the other of these two platforms. Then hope that they made the right choice.

Linky

Samsung is now preparing to roll out an Android phone. The target carrier appears to be T-Mobile. So that is HTC in the field and Samsung and Motorola pending with Android enabled products sometime Q2. I wonder how long before Nokia jumps in too –

Samsung Electronics will ship its first Android phone in the second quarter of of 2009, says a Korea IT News story. The phone will be released in North America by Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile USA, and Samsung’s Android team reportedly now has 80 developers.

Citing “industry insiders,” the Korea IT News story says that the phone will run the Linux-based, Google-sponsored Android spec, and will be a “full” touchscreen phone, offering Google Map, G-Talk, G-mail, and Google Search.

According to the story, Korea-based Samsung has added 30 experts on Linux and Java to its Android team. Part of the company’s information and communications division, the team now numbers 80 developers. The story also quotes a Samsung Electronics executive as saying, “We are accelerating the development process for Google phone in order to meet the specific need of local carriers,” suggesting perhaps that the phone will also be available in Korea.

Android’s momentum appears to be strong heading into the holiday season, although the the holiday sales numbers of the first Android phone, the HTC G1 (pictured at top) will tell the tale. Interestingly, the G1 is also offered by T-Mobile, so if the Korea IT News story is correct in stating that the carrier will also bring Samsung’s phone to market, the Samsung model may be significantly different than the G1

What is particularly interesting is that Samsung’s phone will have the full suite of Google G services available to it. Might Google whip up a GMail Video app for this platform-chipset. If yes then nirvana sets in.

Linky.

Coolest Gadgets is reporting a background story that T-Mobile/HTC have a Android based G2 due out by no later than April of next year. This model will ditch the chicklet keyboard for a touch screen interface ala iPhone. The roller ball will be retained however.

I wish some innovative company would develop a simple voice command nav system. It does not have to be sophisticated. Fact for mobile devices it can be very simple –

• ‘Mail’, ‘Phone’, ‘Web’, ‘Time’ as the main command structure.
• ‘Next’, ‘Last’, ‘Return’, ‘Dive’, ‘Read’. Where ‘Next’ and ‘Last’ went up or down a menu list like in email. ‘Return’ to take you back to the previous menu. ‘Dive’ would take you down a menu level. ‘Read’ would trigger a Text to Speech rendering.

Those 9 commands would eliminate most of the need for a keyboard in a handheld device. Odd that Microsoft has developed voice recognition for their in-car nav system but has not caught on in portable devices yet.

Posting is here.

In this week’s RCR ‘Analyst Angle’ Frank Dickson takes a look at the current handset war. He ticks off a litany of placement analysis on the current players. Much of which I agree with. So what is the point he misses? Well first lets put down the marker –

So what happens to mobile handset providers when the functional of the phone is defined by a third party, open OS? The nature of competition moves from features to cost. The result is that margins begin getting squeezed and competitive advantage is determined by those with the lowest cost manufacturing. As the market makes the transition to cost based competition, the process is never pleasant.

The battle for the platform is an enormous threat to the existing business models of the rest of the mobile community. New competitors battling for platform control do not need to worry directly about network infrastructure or compatibility impacts. Internet issues such as spam, viruses and person-to-person file sharing could have massive ramifications for existing mobile operators. The impact of offloading data traffic from 3G networks to Wi-Fi networks on mobile data revenues is of little concern to the new providers. The new breed of platform combatants seems to have a mobile manifest destiny, looking to capture not only platform control but also the service and content revenue.

” The nature of competition moves from features to cost.”. Well when has this never happened? Think of anything, computers, cars, steel, etc. The cost of the goods are continually being pushed downward by competition in the marketplace. The handset makers should be immune from this capitalist fact? I think not. Handset MFR’s have relied for too long on their cozy relationship with the carriers to bury some of the largess of the CPE in subscription contracts. ThirdPipe has for 2 years stated that such practices delay the shift and should stop.

Features to cost? Hmm. If anything the features that are being heaped on the smartphone component of the CPE market are growing not dwindling. The iPhone has its 10,000th app at the online iPhone store. Android is having similar success on their side as well. Such growth is spurred by an ecology that fosters third party software development. In that type of environment, the development growth INCREASES as the hardware costs dwindle. The other irony is features for whom? Up until it was dead certain that Android would make it to the marketplace, most of the CPE makers were only offering closed systems and their version of ‘black’ from the Henry Ford Industrial Arts Hall of Fame.

Which brings us back to Mr. Dickson’s list. In a world where a cellphone is as smart as you want it, has the power of a PIV chip and costs $75 what happens to that cast of characters? –
More on It Misses the Point of the Shift