We have witnessed several changes over the last decade. First ascendecy of wireless cellular over land line phones. Then it was Pay-per-View over B&M rentals. –

The Dallas-based company has been warning for almost two years that it might need bankruptcy court protection to reorganize its nearly $1 billion in debt, as it struggles with dwindling cash and a shrinking business hurt by competition and its own store closings.

A “pre-planned” bankruptcy filing in mid-September is now considered the most likely scenario for Blockbuster, according to unnamed sources quoted by the Los Angeles Times. That would require agreement from the company’s biggest creditors and suppliers, among others.

Blockbuster CEO Jim Keyes recently visited all the major Hollywood movie studios with an entourage of senior secured-debt holders and restructuring consultants, the Times reported.

Source

So yes I am leading up to what I suspect is the ‘Next Middling Thing’. Its this –

vs this –

At first glance you might say ‘How’? The theater might have seem to have all the cards. Big screen experience with a professional sound system, night out plumage, food on demand, all the trappings of being part of a night out on the town. But hold on you also get to experience teenagers yacking through the whole movie. Several people not have the conviction to turn their cell phones off. Then to top it off be prepared to pay about $40 for a couple to see the viewing with ticket, drinks and popcorn. Its that cost vs say no more than $3 to do the same in the comfort of your home.

But here is the kicker, I don’t think any of the other tech blogs has caught on to the nature of this coming issue. LCD TVs have not been gaga tech for quite some time. Same with Pay-per-View. So this has been slipping by under the radar. But you can be assured that the Suits running the theaters certainly are considering it. Its not tech but a tipping point issue that is quietly giving the nod to In-Home viewing.

The tipping point is cost. You can walk into any Best Buy today an purchase a 50″ or larger LCD panel for around a $1000. Add a DVD player or Roku NetFlix box for another $100. That is a pricing level that is affordable to every middle income family in the nation. Home Theater is no longer the providence of well heeled households. Then just roll the numbers. If you figure that the average unit will last 5 years or more then consider many may go to the movies twice a month. It does not take long for the system to pay for itself in deferred expense. Its substitution. Another entertainment deflation.

The second tipping point is scale. Large screen LCD’s are now selling briskly even in this down economy. When a large segment of the population can do their viewing at home the theaters are toast. We are not even close yet, but give it 5 years as the conversion continues and theaters will be gone or greatly reduced in number.

Its no great shucks but it is something you can take to the bank from a business perspective.

Oh its not about their security or selling YOUR data, though that it is the cause. Their problem is they have spawned a new generation of Facebook wannabees –

Diaspora: Personally Controlled, Do-It-All, Distributed Open-Source Social Network

The vid above is for the upstart Diaspora. Another that is starting up is Appleseed. Both are running forward as Open Source projects. Interestingly, Diaspora has already raised nearly a $100k of Angel financing thru individual contributions to the effort.

What sets these two fledglings from Facebook? One is philosophy. They believe the user should be in control of their data. That is a FOSS core concept of its existence. The second is approach. Whereas Facebook used the central server farm approach, these two firms are going to take a distributed approach. My understanding being your data stays on your machines and the option to share is local. The protocol having many of the attributes of torrents but much more sophisticated.

If they can get these tools off the ground and accepted (and hopefully a merged api) I see a much broader use for the tool. How? Maybe financial transactions. Companies passing annual reports to the SEC for example in the accepted BRXML format. Or how about micropayments? The coke machine taking your dollar transfer to it from your cellphone using the api and a validation code from PayPal where the dollar came from.

But we have to walk first. So lets see now much impact one or both of these platforms have on Facebook. Its a shame really. Facebook had an excellent business model that could have been monetized differently without the privacy issues. A bad business decision is going to lay them low. Better competition will put them under.

Well it appears that BlockBuster, once the darling of Wall Street in the ’90’s is about to go poof. The NYSE has indicated that there are very close to being delisted by the exchange. And now this –

Notorious shareholder activist Carl Icahn recently filed a Form 4 with the SEC regarding shares of Blockbuster (BBI). Icahn, through his various investment vehicles, recently dumped a ton of both Class A and Class B shares of Blockbuster. On March 25th he owned 19,905,190 shares and as of March 30th, he now owns only 4,358,223 shares. The majority of sales took place on March 29th and 30th at prices of $0.24 and $0.25 per share. In total, Icahn’s various entities sold 14,362,708 …

Essentially Ichan sold off 78% of his holdings in BlockBuster. Icahn is the Jay Gould of our age, but he is nobody’s fool. He see’s the handwriting on the wall for the video rental industry. It can’t survive brick and mortar. BlockBuster is a causality of the broadband market growth.

So who is the winner short term? Why Red Box of course. Those that frequent BlockBuster will go somewhere. That somewhere is a Red Box kiosk.

Linky.

Lets just get to the meat of it ok. Then more after the jump —

Google is planning to launch an experiment that we hope will make Internet access better and faster for everyone. We plan to test ultra-high speed broadband networks in one or more trial locations across the country. Our networks will deliver Internet speeds more than 100 times faster than what most Americans have access to today over 1 gigabit per second, fiber-to-the-home connections. We’ll offer service at a competitive price to at least 50,000 and potentially up to 500,000 people.

From now until March 26th, we’re asking interested municipalities to provide us with information about their communities through a Request for information (RFI), which we’ll use to determine where to build our network.

That’s from the website.

Now notice this is not some high speed to the head end sort of offer. They specifically say FTH. So they intend to go right to the curb. Their testing will test some 50-500k patrons. What is not clear, is that a single site or a mix of smaller sites.

Google goes on to say they will provide —

* Next generation apps: We want to see what developers and users can do with ultra high-speeds, whether it’s creating new bandwidth-intensive “killer apps” and services, or other uses we can’t yet imagine.

* New deployment techniques: We’ll test new ways to build fiber networks; to help inform, and support deployments elsewhere, we’ll share key lessons learned with the world.

* Openness and choice: We’ll operate an “open access” network, giving users the choice of multiple service providers. And consistent with our past advocacy, we’ll manage our network in an open, non-discriminatory, and transparent way.

What I find of particular interest is the commitment to an open transport layer. A place where anyone can play? ISP and Google? If true that would be a game changer in the data transport marketplace. Fact if true it would complete a vision that was the reason that this blog was created for — create an open backbone and permit service providers to battle it out in the marketplace of products and services.

We keep our fingers crossed.

Linky.

For the benefit of those that might not have been watching. Amazon and Macmillan got into a pricing dispute over eBook sales. Part of the trigger being that Macmillan cut an agency deal with Apple for the iPad platform that has a variable rate that is higher than Amazon’s pricing. It got so heated that at one point Amazon disabled purchasing of the entire suite of that publishers books.

Why do we care?

Well primarily because it might change the landscape for eBooks. But my gut says this will not play out like either party thinks.

Whose right?

Well neither. Remember this is at its core a contract dispute. So you have two parties haggling over price and terms. But one author did have an interest viewpoint –

If Amazon were a smaller retailer, this probably wouldn’t be a big deal. But Amazon pretty much, right now, has a monopoly on online bookselling. They’re huge. As a result, this becomes nearly a form of de facto price fixing.

source.

Which if not in word, at least in deed is probably the case at this point and time.

Is one price for a book wrong?

Well no. But if you think of a free market, single cost pricing may be efficient for the offerer but it forces a self selection from the buyer to only consider catalog items that have an intrinsic value more than the offer price. So ‘Gone with the Wind’ would sell well, but ‘Attack of the NanoAtomic Vampire’ from an unknown author would not.

So what’s the moral here?

Its all theatre. Here is why. There is no determined pricing for ePub books. Its all new. The book publishers want to set an expectation in the ~ $20 range, right below a mid-successful hard cover release. They want to protect their legacy infrastructure when for all purposes it is toast. To me that is as bad as Amazon trying to fix a one price strategy.

The reality is the following — ePub pricing will be determined on authorship, topic and audience. It will no longer have a printing component determining the floor price of the publication. That is what both parties are trying to avoid and they don’t want you to think that it might be possible to buy ‘Linear Algebra II’ from Knopf, Knuth and Rupert for $4.99. But that is entirely possible even with today’s technology.

ePub platforms are crude compared to what they will be like in say 5 years. Authors will be able to set their pricing, eliminate the Macmillan’s of the world, and sell pulp copies if need be through a supplier like Lulu.

That ladies and gentlemen is what the dust up is about. They don’t want you to know that very shortly there could be a door number 3 to choose from for all your reading.

I’ll be blunt — this stinks!

“People are paying money in to go to college,” she said, “I don’t think any of that money should be used to subsidize the broadband effort that really is competing with the private sector.”

– Sen. Lisa Marrache, the assistant Senate majority leader

Oh, you are asking what’s the argument? The Univ of Mass is considering going into partnership with several communities and private enterprise in rural Maine locations to get broadband to these localities that are not being served now. The beef of course is that the University is competing with private enterprise. —

Marrache said constituents raised the issue with her after charges were leveled this summer that UMS is competing with private companies in the broadband business.

Severin Beliveau, an Augusta attorney representing FairPoint, blasted UMS at a meeting of the State Broadband Advisory Council, arguing their participation in a group seeking federal funds was improper competition with the private sector.

“I am concerned at what the university is proposing here, because it is receiving a form of subsidy, no they are in fact receiving a subsidy from taxpayers, in competing with the private sector,” he said.

Jeff Letourneau, associate director of information technology at UMS, said the university is part of a private-public partnership created to provide broadband capacity at a “wholesale” level and the university’s role is minor.

“The grant from the federal government went to GWI [Great Works Internet] and two private investors,” he said. “As for tuition subsidizing our broadband efforts, that does not happen and will not happen.”

I am a dirty stinking capitalist of the first order. There are not many $$ deals I won’t turn down. (Though there are moral ones I won’t touch.) But if private companies don’t want to service these areas; and that has been the case for Verizon, now FairPoint for years, then by God you have no right to complain. You were offered a franchise there Telcos, decided it was not worth your effort and now complain when your unopened candy bar is taken away from you. Pffft, tough. Capitalism works best when there is fair exchange going on. Capitalism does not work where monopolistic haunch sitting goes on and the citizenry suffer as a consequence.

Which brings me to the title of this missive. You have to ask yourself whose ox gets gored if UofMaine went thru with the deal? Why the resident Telco is who. That ladies and gentlemen has to be the back story. As a fellow conservative I know says — flare drops. This is only a cover to prevent competition.

Serve your constituents Marrache.

Link.
HT:WetMachine.

I have used Visio for years. First when it was and independent and afterwards when Microsoft bought them out. In the Corporate world it is THE graphics package. Visio is so dominate that there is little competition. You have to go to the Mac space to find viable alternatives.

Well that changes now —

Cacoo - Real-time Collaborative Diagramming & Design from Nulab Inc. on Vimeo.

Issues? I had only one. My base system runs 64bit Ubuntu and the flash player I am forced to use is an experimental v.11 code. Does not work. But a 32 bit Ubuntu with flash does.

But is it a Visio killer? Out of the box no. There are features that this Cacoo do not even touch. For example diagram packs for Cisco gear right down to the card that can go in the frames. Not there yet. But, from small beginnings competitors are made. This online tool is sufficient for most small businesses. It is perfect for any individual. That’s the rub for Visio too. Once someone buys into a base package the customer is more inclined to buy add-ons and upgrades. Now that might get short circuited.

Would highly recommend folks give them a try.
website: http://cacoo.com/

EDGEWATER, Colo. — A man who claimed he was attacked and stabbed in Edgewater Monday night has admitted he stabbed himself because he didn’t want to go to work.

Aaron Siebers, 29, reported the stabbing at about 6:30 p.m. when he walked to his job at Blockbuster Video, 1921 Sheridan Blvd.

Siebers was rushed to St. Anthony Hospital where he received stitches to close his wound.

Meanwhile, officers from Edgewater, Mountain View, Lakewood, Lakeside and Jefferson County began a search for the suspects, who had been described as three skinheads or Hispanic males dressed in black. He told police they tried to rob him and then stabbed him with a knife.

Investigators reviewed surveillance video taken at a nearby business. It failed to show an attack where Siebers claimed it had happened.

Now Retail can be stressful at times. Dealing with customers all day can be a demanding situation. But commit Seppuku so you don’t have to report to work? Wouldn’t quitting been easier??

Linky.

My apologies to Ed Berridge its not our practice to just lift articles bodily from a publisher. But this is just too sweet not to —

LINUX VENDOR Red Hat hit a milestone yesterday when its share price rose above Microsoft’s.

True, Microsoft has a hell of a lot more shares out there in the marketplace and its own share price has not been that healthy over the past year, but this is being seen by analysts as a great day for the free software outfit.

Since 2001 Red Hat has experienced more than 600 per cent growth, while during the same period Microsoft has experienced negative growth in its share price.

Actually 2001 was a darn good time to invest in Red Hat. In those days its stock was worth a piddling $3 per share. Now Red Hat stock is priced at over $28 per share.

Analysts say that while Red Hat’s share price has been higher than today what is important is that actually it is worth the figure.

Red Hat’s profits come from server support subscriptions and it is a stable maker of earnings.

The only thing that could go wrong for Red Hat is if other Linux suppliers come along and offer lower subscription fees.

However to balance that, Red Hat is making a killing with virtualisation and its Java application server business in Jboss.

According to CIO Today, Red Hat could make out like a bandit on the craze for Cloud computing. µ

Ed, if you or your publisher have heartburn, please just send us a note. We will take this down. But this is just too sweet not to savor. Go Red Hat!

Linky.

In a continuing saga the fortunes of a couple of media titans continue to face hard times –

Conde –

The whole golf section is being revamped to get costs in line with revenue.

A Conde insider tells us that the layoffs came down this morning with little notice, claiming at least ten sales staffers at Golf World and at least one more at Golf Digest. The company “basically gutted [Golf World] and are merging the sales and marketing team with Golf Digest,” our tipster says.

It has been widely reported that nearly every surviving title at Condé Nast has been tasked with cutting 25% of their overall budgets. Condé Nast Editors-in-Chief at each title have been given the leeway to make cuts as they see fit, on their own schedule. The timing of these cuts has been closely guarded until now, and it remains unclear when cuts will come for each title. We will have more as the story develops.

CNN –

Once the unassailable leader in video news content. CNN now is at the bottom of the barrel in the cable news race, finishing dead last no matter how you slice the demographic.

• For the 7th consecutive weekday, CNN finished fourth on cable news in the prime time A25-54 demographic. It was the 77th time CNN finished 4th in that category this year. FNC was way out in front, followed by HLN just edging MSNBC by 1,000 viewers.

• Fox News’ total viewer average during prime time of 2,735,000 beat the other three cable news networks combined. Bill O’Reilly, who had the top show, had more than 1,000,000 in the demo

What’s happening? Well part is that the current recession this go round is impacting everyone. Unlike the last recession that hit IT hard. Or the one previous, that hit manufacturing. This particular downturn is hitting financial markets hard, but is not discriminating. Main street is feeling the effects. Couple that with small business sitting on the sidelines waiting for the regulatory environment to clear and the result is the perfect stom of inaction.

Sources.