Now that analog TV has officially been retires, get ready for the FUD onslaught to come from the two big telco players long before they begin to slowly dribble out LTE bandwidth. Never the less. press releases are already feeding the media with lots of propaganda about the brave new world we will have in a very short time.

It’s time to douse the Wimax FUD flames that all of the LTE folks have been fanning. With likely delays in analog TV shutdown, the vapor technology called LTE could move even farther off over the horizon. While Wimax deployment has been as slow as a turtle race, where live, it’s working quite well. Here’s an excerpt from a  real review by a real person in Portland:

The performance of the Clear network was consistently good, with throughput typically over 3 mbps in the downlink and between 350 and 400 kbps in the uplink. Internet browsing was fast, so I decided to spend most time checking video applications (YouTube, New York Times, and even a full screen movie from Hulu) and video-conferencing with Skype. All worked reliably well in areas with good coverage. The major limitation of the network were a few areas without sufficient coverage-which I visited twice during the day-, but this is to be expected in a new network still being optimized. (Senza Fili Consulting)

Sadly any delay in LTE getting off the ground also lowers the urgency for Clearwire to complete a national WiMAX network. As for the FUD peddlers who play the pay to post game with bloggers who fan the Wimax FUD flames: I never got your check, so I’m telling the truth about WiMAX. Enjoy the fire hose!

Verizon, who has been working overtime to FUD WiMAX via the new Clearwire out of existence, seems to be a believer in the technology after  all. No, they are not adopting the technology for their own 4G use, but they have stated that their LTE service will appear magically out of thin air next year. If you’re Verizon, the best reason to claim you’ll have alledgedly better product to market quickly is to slow the take rate of your competitors offering. Naturally we will be here to document that miracle as it unfolds before our eyes, so stay tuned.

“We expect that LTE will actually be in service somewhere here in the U.S. probably this time next year,” said Dick Lynch, executive vice president and chief technology officer of Verizon Communications, in a speech at Cisco Systems‘ C-Scape conference in San Jose, California. That would represent a more aggressive timetable than many observers have expected for the high-speed data system, which has been pegged for initial deployments in 2010 and wide rollouts starting in 2011.

LTE is a fourth-generation wireless data system expected to be the next step up in speed and capacity for carriers using the GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) platform, which is dominant in most of the world. Like WiMax, it should deliver multiple megabits per second of throughput. (Yahoo)

It’s amazing how much of the tech press and big tech blogs have run this story as the certain death of WiMAX. It’s true that Spint/Clearwire has had a bunch of trouble getting their network off of the ground, but they have and it’s working. There is still a big bunch of deploying ahead to build a national network. The rub with reporting Verizon’s LTE as a sure fire Clear wire killer is that Verizon has just as many obstacles ahead as Clearwire, and maybe a few more. The biggest unresolved issue is backhaul. It’s the main factor in slowing Clearwire’s progress, and Verizon has no bigger existing pipes to their towers. In fact the big V has struggled for years just to get much lower speed 3G service working. Then there is the underlying technology. WiMAX has had plenty of hiccups along the way to becoming a reality, but it is now in the wild and working as advertised. LTE is still in its infancy without a single working installation, and it’s silly to assume it will work perfectly in its first few generations. Then there’s the capital involved in getting a network built. Verizon is not likely to be able to raise as much money in the debt market as they have been able to in the past - no one is right now.

I’m not a WiMAX cheerleader per se. I hope both Wimax and LTE are up an running ASAP, and competing vigorously. What makes Clearwire’s WiMAX appealing today is its time to market, and it’s direct competitive stance against both mobile and fixed broadband. I’ll offer a crazed cheer to any company that will offer a potential third pipe, even one that’s only 2-4 MBPS. So if Verizon or LTE wants me to cheer, the can buy a big ad on Thirdpipe (like they do on the blogs that spread their FUD), or show me the bandwidth and actually deliver a working product before they ask me to declare a competitor “dead”.

I’m no analyst, but I can see when a properly schooled one is either spreading FUD or is simply clueless. FUD is only dangerous when fed to the clueless, who it so happens are often the majority of fund managers. I’m assuming Mike is just not up to speed on WiMAX, and that his FUD is unintentional.

Quoting McCormack:

“While we believe Clearwire has amassed an attractive spectrum position that enables the delivery of competitive wireless speeds, we are concerned about the competitive landscape for both residential and mobile services, the impact of the weak economy and the appetite for business partners to sell Clearwire services,” he writes.

McCormack notes that the company plans to offer wireless broadband service at 2-4 Mbps, which is above the 0.6-1.7 Mbps offered by the national carriers currently. In some markets, he notes, Clearwire expects to offers speeds of 6-15 Mbps, “easily” outpacing 3G speeds. But McCormack says he questions whether end users are demanding that kind of speed. (Barrons)

If you only understand the concept of broadband in the context of a landline or a cell phone, you will have missed the following:

1) The average fixed broadband user in America has access to a top speed in the 2-4 GBPS range, making Clearwire’s initial speed offering competitive in with fixed line service in most markets. Wimax has the potential to deliver far faster speeds than ADSL or DOCSIS 2, so there’s plenty of headroom to stay competitive.

2) As for mobile, there is not even a complete standard for a 4G implementation on the telco side yet, and when there is they are still not capable of delivering the same speeds. The spectrum held by Clearwire does not penetrate buildings as well as the incumbent telcos 700mHZ real estate, but Clearwire’s allocated bandwidth is much larger - meaning far faster wireless connections are possible.

3) VoIP enabled devices, both portable and fixed can easily displace old school fixed line and mobile voice service without any additional investment from Clearwire. Since Clearwire is offering an open network, new capabilities will surface and grow viruly,  always placing new technologies and services on their network first.

4) Yes, you have to be competitive. Study after study has shown that most broadband users want more speed for less. Give them that and they are yours. Offer it for either fixed or mobile use with a single infrastructure, and you have a huge cost advantage over the incumbents, as well as a unique offering.

5) There is no shortage of willing business partners to sell the service.  Startups always follow layoffs even if the traditional cell phone shops are not interested or get bullied by the incumbents. Also, there’s is no bullying the likes of Best Buy, Office Depot, Staples, Target and Walmart even if you are AT&T or Verizon.

Please don’t take me as a mindless Clearwire fanboy. I have concerns about its viability, but from a perspective of the firm’s ability to build enough national coverage to be a viable mobile player for the traveling user (who is also typically the biggest spender) as well as its ability to market the service. Only time will tell if there is enough money and savvy in the Clearwire camp to make it happen.

Clearly the technology and spectrum gives Clearwire a leg up on the competition if they can execute the business plan well.